This is a guest post by David Ford.
The Fourth Turning is a book written in the mid-1990s by William Strauss and Neil Howe that discusses the recurring cycles of history and the generational shifts that occur within them. In the year 2023, we find ourselves in the midst of a new Fourth Turning (indeed, Howe has put out an update of the text called The Fourth Turning Is Here), which the authors predicted would be a time of crisis and upheaval marked by a period of intense conflict and social change.
As we look around at the world today, it’s clear that we are living in uncertain times marked by political polarization, economic instability, and social unrest. The COVID-19 pandemic upended our lives in ways that we could not have imagined just a few years ago, and the resulting economic and social fallout has only added to the sense of unease and uncertainty that so many of us feel.
In the context of the Fourth Turning, these developments are hardly surprising. According to Strauss and Howe, each cycle of history is marked by four distinct phases, or turnings: the High, the Awakening, the Unraveling, and the Crisis. The Crisis phase is the one in which we find ourselves now, and it is characterized by conflict and upheaval that ultimately leads to a new era of stability and order.
So what can we expect from the Fourth Turning in 2023 and beyond? According to Strauss and Howe, we can expect to see a continuation of the trends that have driven us to this point: political instability, economic uncertainty, and social unrest. These trends will likely be exacerbated by the ongoing impacts of the pandemic, which will continue to have profound effects on our daily lives and the global economy.
At the same time, however, the authors suggest that the Fourth Turning also presents us with an opportunity to reshape our society in positive ways (think “Great Reset,” but for good, instead of eating bugs and “owning nothing”). By confronting the challenges of this crisis head-on and working together to build a more equitable and just world, we have the potential to emerge from this period of upheaval stronger and more resilient than ever before.
In order to do so, however, we will need to be willing to engage in difficult conversations about the future of our society and the kinds of changes that will be necessary to build a more equitable and sustainable world. We will also need to be willing to embrace new technologies and new ways of thinking about the world, as well as to confront the systemic inequalities and injustices that have brought us to this point.
Overall, The Fourth Turning is a thought-provoking and insightful book that challenges us to think deeply about the nature of history and the role that we can play in shaping the future. As we navigate the challenges of the Fourth Turning in 2023 and beyond, it will be up to each of us to do our part in building a better world for ourselves and for future generations.
